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What is the current valuation of Novo Nordisk’s Concizumab

Concizumab is a monoclonal antibody commercialized by Novo Nordisk, with a leading Pre-Registration program in Hemophilia B (Factor IX Deficiency). According to Globaldata, it is involved in 11 clinical trials, of which 7 were completed, 2 are ongoing, and 2 were terminated. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Concizumab’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for Concizumab is expected to reach an annual total of $105 mn by 2035 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Concizumab Overview

Concizumab (NN-7415) is under development for the treatment of hemophilia A and B. It is a monoclonal IgG4 antibody (mAb) which is administered subcutaneously as a solution. It targets tissue factor pathway inhibitor (TFPI).

Novo Nordisk Overview

Novo Nordisk, a subsidiary of Novo Holdings AS, is a healthcare company focused on discovering, developing, and manufacturing of innovative biological medicines. It focuses on advancing drugs for the treatment of diabetes and other serious chronic conditions, including hemophilia, human growth hormone (HGH) disorders, rare blood and rare endocrine diseases, and obesity. The company’s portfolio includes pre-filled delivery systems for insulin; glucagon hypokit; cartridge; needles; vials; insulin; estradiol for hormone replacement; recombinant drugs for hemophilia; glucagon; and oral antidiabetic agents. The company markets its products through subsidiaries in North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, Africa, the Middle East and Australia. Novo Nordisk is headquartered in Bagsvaerd, Denmark.

The company reported revenues of (Danish Krone) DKK176,954 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), an increase of 25.7% over FY2021. The operating profit of the company was DKK74,809 million in FY2022, compared to an operating profit of DKK58,644 million in FY2021. The net profit of the company was DKK55,525 million in FY2022, compared to a net profit of DKK47,757 million in FY2021.

For a complete picture of Concizumab’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

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