The revenue for NVL-655 is expected to reach an annual total of $102 mn by 2035 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
NVL-655 Overview
NVL-655 is under development for the treatment of solid tumor, non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), cholangiocarcinoma, neuroblastoma, anaplastic large cell lymphoma, diffuse large b-cell lymphoma, esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, renal cell carcinoma, breast cancer, inflammatory myofibroblastic tumor (IMT), colorectal cancer, ovarian cancer, papillary thyroid cancer and soft-tissue sarcoma. It acts by targeting anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK). It is administered through oral route.
Nuvalent Overview
Nuvalent is a biopharmaceutical company that discovers and develop novel drug candidates to treat cancer. It investigates its pipeline programs including NVL-520, a novel brain-penetrant ROS1-selective inhibitor; and NVL-655, an ALK-selective inhibitor for the treatment of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). It is also evaluating multiple discovery-stage research programs in the area of oncology. Nuvalent develop small molecules to minimize adverse events and address brain metastases. The company works in collaboration with medical institutions, CROs and CMOs to conduct and support preclinical studies and clinical trials. Nuvalent is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, the US.
The operating loss of the company was US$86.1 million in FY2022, compared to an operating loss of US$45.8 million in FY2021. The net loss of the company was US$81.9 million in FY2022, compared to a net loss of US$46.3 million in FY2021.
For a complete picture of NVL-655’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
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