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What is the current valuation of Novartis’s Gevokizumab

Gevokizumab is a monoclonal antibody commercialized by Novartis, with a leading Phase I program in Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 34 clinical trials, of which 20 were completed, 1 is ongoing, and 13 were terminated. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Gevokizumab’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for Gevokizumab is expected to reach an annual total of $6 mn by 2038 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Gevokizumab Overview

Gevokizumab (XOMA-052) is developing gevokizumab for the treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer gastroesophageal cancer and colon cancer.  XOMA 052 is administered either as an intravenous (IV) infusion or as a subcutaneous (SC) injection. XOMA 052 is a potent human engineered IgG2 monoclonal antibody, binds to IL-1 beta, a pro-inflammatory cytokine. The drug candidate was under development for the treatment of Pyoderma gangrenosum (PG), erosive osteoarthritis of the hand (EOA), rheumatoid arthritis, multiple myeloma, Systemic Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis (SJIA), acne vulgaris , gout, non-infectious uveitis (NIU), Behçet’s uveitis, skin ulcer including Pyoderma gangrenosum (PG), non-infectious anterior scleritis, Autoimmune inner ear disease (AIED), type 1 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, polymyositis/dermatomyositis, giant cell arteritis, Schnitzler syndrome, type 2 diabetes, diabetic nephropathy, metastatic colorectal cancer (first and second), metastatic gastroesophageal cancer (second) and metastatic renal cell carcinoma (second and third). It is a new molecular entity (NME).

It was under development for renal cell carcinoma as first line therapy.

Novartis Overview

Novartis is a healthcare company that focuses on the discovery, development, manufacture and marketing of prescription and generic pharmaceutical products and eye care products. It provides drugs for the treatment of cancer, cardiovascular diseases, dermatological conditions, neurological disorders, ophthalmic and respiratory diseases, immune disorders, and infections, among others. The company offers generic medicines and biosimilars through Sandoz. Novartis conducts research in various disease areas through The Novartis Institutes for BioMedical Research (NIBR). The company operates through a network of subsidiaries and offices across the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia-Pacific. Novartis is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.

The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$51,742 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), a decrease of 2.1% over FY2021. The operating profit of the company was US$9,197 million in FY2022, compared to an operating profit of US$11,689 million in FY2021. The net profit of the company was US$6,955 million in FY2022, compared to a net profit of US$24,021 million in FY2021.

For a complete picture of Gevokizumab’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

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