The revenue for MRNA-3705 is expected to reach an annual total of $11 mn by 2039 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
MRNA-3705 Overview
mRNA-3705 is under development for the treatment of methylmalonic acidemia (MMA). It acts by targeting methylmalonyl CoA mutase (MUT) enzyme. The therapeutic candidate comprises of messenger RNA (mRNA) and is being developed based on lipid nanoparticles (LNP) technology and mRNA expression platform. It is administered through intravenous route.
Moderna Overview
Moderna is a biotechnology company that focuses on the development of messenger RNA (mRNA) therapeutics and vaccines. The company develops and discovers drugs that produce proteins or antibodies inside patient cells. Its pipeline includes various drug modalities such as prophylactic vaccines, therapeutic vaccines, intratumoral immuno-oncology, localized therapeutics, and liver intracellular. Moderna through its mRNA therapeutics platform develops and produces human proteins, antibodies, and novel proteins, which help in preventing, treating, and curing diseases. It also develops therapeutics in the areas of infectious disease, rare liver disease, immuno-oncology, and cardiovascular disease. Moderna Therapeutics is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, the US.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$19,263 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), an increase of 4.3% over FY2021. In FY2022, the company’s operating margin was 48.9%, compared to an operating margin of 72% in FY2021. In FY2022, the company recorded a net margin of 43.4%, compared to a net margin of 66.1% in FY2021.
The company reported revenues of US$344 million for the second quarter ended June 2023, a decrease of 81.5% over the previous quarter.
For a complete picture of MRNA-3705’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
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