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What is the current valuation of AstraZeneca’s Capivasertib

Capivasertib is a small molecule commercialized by AstraZeneca, with a leading Phase III program in Metastatic Breast Cancer. According to Globaldata, it is involved in 46 clinical trials, of which 21 were completed, 22 are ongoing, 1 is planned, and 2 were terminated. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Capivasertib’s valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.

The revenue for Capivasertib is expected to reach an annual total of $174 mn by 2032 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Capivasertib Overview

Capivasertib (AZD-5363) is under development for the treatment of relapsed or refractory (R/R) B-cell non-Hodgkin’s lymphomas including follicular lymphoma (FL), marginal zone lymphoma (MZL) and mantle cell lymphoma (MCL), relapsed/refractory B-cell non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, advanced refractory lymphoma and multiple myeloma, diffuse large B cell lymphoma, solid tumors including metastatic triple negative breast cancer, advanced (inoperable) or metastatic HR+/HER2− breast cancer, HER2 positive breast cancer, hormone refractory castration resistant prostate cancer, metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer, adenocarcinoma of prostate cancer, recurrent endometrial cancer, non-small cell lung cancer, ovarian cancer, primary peritoneal cancer and fallopian tube cancer. The drug candidate is administered through oral route as a tablet. It is a pyrrolopyrimidine-derived compound that targets all isoforms of AKT (protein kinase B). It was also under development for cervical cancer.

AstraZeneca Overview

AstraZeneca is a biopharmaceutical company, which is focused on discovery, production and commercialization of a range of prescription drugs. It develops products related to therapy areas such as respiratory, cardiovascular, renal and metabolic diseases, cancer, autoimmune, infection and neurological diseases. The company’s product portfolio includes biologics, prescription pharmaceuticals and vaccines. AstraZeneca sells its products through wholly-owned local marketing companies, distributors and local representative offices. The company markets its products to primary care and specialty care physicians. The COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca has been approved for conditional marketing or emergency use. The company operates in Europe, the Americas, Asia, Africa and Australasia. AstraZeneca is headquartered in Cambridge, Cambridgeshire, the UK.

The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$44,351 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), an increase of 18.5% over FY2021. The operating profit of the company was US$3,757 million in FY2022, compared to an operating profit of US$1,056 million in FY2021. The net profit of the company was US$3,288 million in FY2022, compared to a net profit of US$112 million in FY2021.

For a complete picture of Capivasertib’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

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