According to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company, CD drug sales across the eight-major markets (8MM*) are projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.7%, increasing from $9.5 billion in 2022 to $15.0 billion in 2032.
Adeleke Badejo, Senior Analyst of Immunology at GlobalData, highlights the significance of the maturation of the selective anti-interleukin (IL)-23 drug class in the landscape. The anticipated launches of Janssen’s Tremfya (guselkumab) and Lilly’s mirikizumab in the US and Europe in late 2025 and 2026, respectively, are expected to shape the market. These pipeline agents, along with AbbVie’s Skyrizi, may emerge as second-generation therapies over Janssen’s non-selective anti-IL-12/23 Stelara.
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Badejo also notes the influence of small molecules on the market, driven by patient preference for oral administration over intravenous or subcutaneous biologics. These drugs include AbbVie’s approved Janus kinase (JAK) inhibitor Rinvoq and pipeline sphingosine-1 phosphate receptor modulators (S1PRs) such as Bristol Myers Squibb’s Zeposia and Pfizer’s etrasimod.
With 11 late-stage pipeline assets expected to enter the CD market during the forecast period, combined sales in the 8MM are projected to reach approximately $3.6 billion by 2032. Anti-IL-23 and anti-TL1A therapies, including Merck’s MK-7240, Teva’s TEV-48574, and Telavant’s RVT-3101, are expected to be market leaders with a significant impact.
Similarly, the 5EU (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK) will also experience growth, with the UK leading with a CAGR of 4.4%. Germany will remain the largest market within the 5EU, contributing $858.7 million to the predicted $2.2 billion CD sales in 2032, although it will experience the smallest market gain with a CAGR of 1.9%.
Source: Medindia
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