The revenue for BGB-3245 is expected to reach an annual total of $11 mn by 2034 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
BGB-3245 Overview
BGB-3245 is under development for the treatment of solid tumors including colorectal cancer, pancreatic participants, melanoma, non-small cell lung cancer and bile duct cancer (cholangiocarcinoma) and endometrial cancer. This is a next generation RAF dimer inhibitors. The drug candidate targets a proto-oncogene B-Raf.
SpringWorks Therapeutics Overview
SpringWorks Therapeutics is a drug development company that develops therapeutic medicines for various diseases. The company’s pipeline products include Nirogacestat, MEK ½ Inhibitor, Senicapoc and FAAH Inhibitor. Its Nirogacestat is a gamma-secretase inhibitor used for the treatment of Desmoid tumors. SpringWorks Therapeutics’ Senicapoc is a Gardos channel blocker used for the treatment of hereditary xerocytosis. The company’s FAAH Inhibitor is used for the treatment of post-traumatic stress disorder. It partners with biopharmaceutical companies, scientists, patient groups and philanthropists. SpringWorks Therapeutics is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut, the US.
The operating loss of the company was US$280.7 million in FY2022, compared to an operating loss of US$173.5 million in FY2021. The net loss of the company was US$277.4 million in FY2022, compared to a net loss of US$173.9 million in FY2021.
For a complete picture of BGB-3245’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
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