The revenue for Resiniferatoxin is expected to reach an annual total of $34 mn by 2035 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Resiniferatoxin Overview
MTX-071 (Lopain) is under development for the treatment of chronic osteoarthritic knee joint pain. The drug candidate consists of resiniferatoxin administered through intraarticular route as a solution. It acts by targeting transient receptor potential vanilloid subtype 1 (TRPV1).
Shionogi Overview
Shionogi focuses on the research, development, manufacturing, and marketing of pharmaceutical products, diagnostic reagents, and medical devices. It develops innovative products and services in collaboration with its partners. The company offers prescription drugs, over-the-counter (OTC) drugs, and diagnostic products for the therapeutic areas including metabolic disorders, pain/central nervous system (CNS), infectious diseases and cancer. It offers contract development and manufacturing facilities including all stages from drug development to commercial manufacturing. The company operates a network of subsidiaries, branches, sales offices manufacturing plants, and research laboratories across Japan, China, Taiwan; North America and Europe. Shionogi is headquartered in Osaka, Japan.
The company reported revenues of (Yen) JPY426,684 million for the fiscal year ended March 2023 (FY2023), an increase of 27.3% over FY2022. In FY2023, the company’s operating margin was 34.9%, compared to an operating margin of 32.9% in FY2022. In FY2023, the company recorded a net margin of 43.3%, compared to a net margin of 34.1% in FY2022.
For a complete picture of Resiniferatoxin’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
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