What is the current valuation of Pharma Mar’s Ecubectedin

The revenue for Ecubectedin is expected to reach an annual total of $40 mn by 2036 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Ecubectedin Overview

Ecubectedin (PM-14) is under development for the treatment of solid tumors like breast tumor, epithelioid hemangioendothelioma, dedifferentiated sarcoma, soft tissue sarcoma and gastric tumor, esophageal cancer, adenocarcinoma of the gastroesophageal junction, pancreatic cancer, ductal carcinoma, bile duct cancer (cholangiocarcinoma), hepatocellular carcinoma, colorectal cancer, peripheral nerve sheath tumor, fibrosarcoma, pleomorphic liposarcoma, pleomorphic rhabdomyosarcoma, angiosarcoma, head and neck cancer, neuroendocrine gastroenteropancreatic tumors (GEP-NET), non-small cell lung cancer, small-cell lung cancer, sarcomas, liposarcoma, leiomyosarcoma, synovial sarcoma, mixoid liposarcoma, ewing sarcoma, epithelial ovarian cancer, peritoneal cancer, fallopian tube cancer, endometrial cancer, cervical cancer, breast cancer, transitional cell carcinoma (urothelial cell carcinoma), renal cell carcinoma, prostate cancer, malignant pleural mesothelioma, adrenocortical carcinoma (adrenal cortex cancer), hormone sensitive breast cancer and, hormone refractory (castration resistant, androgen-independent) prostate cancer. It is administered through intravenous route. The drug candidate is a marine-derived compound.

Pharma Mar Overview

Pharma Mar discovers, develops and markets marine-derived drugs to treat cancer. The company’s marketed products include Yondelis (trabectedin) an antitumor agent indicated for the treatment of soft tissue sarcoma and relapsed ovarian cancer in combination with doxorubicin HCl liposome injection; Aplidin (plitidepsin), an anticancer agent for the treatment of multiple myeloma; and Zepzelca (lurbinectedin) for small cell lung cancer. Pharma Mar offers in vitro diagnostic products used for detection of virus and bacteria in respiratory infections and human papilloma virus genotypes, among others. Pharma Mar also offers kits used for diagnosis of influenza A and B and respiratory syncytial virus. Its development pipeline includes PM14 for solid tumors, among others. It also develops RNAi candidates for the treatment of retina diseases. The company has subsidiaries in Germany, Italy, France, Switzerland, the UK, and the US, among others. Pharma Mar is headquartered in Madrid, Spain.

The company reported revenues of (Euro) EUR196.3 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), a decrease of 14.6% over FY2021. In FY2022, the company’s operating margin was 22.4%, compared to an operating margin of 40.2% in FY2021. In FY2022, the company recorded a net margin of 25.1%, compared to a net margin of 40.4% in FY2021.
The company reported revenues of EUR34 million for the first quarter ended March 2023, a decrease of 38.2% over the previous quarter.

For a complete picture of Ecubectedin’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.