What is the current valuation of Oncolytics Biotech’s Reolysin

The revenue for Reolysin is expected to reach an annual total of $109 mn by 2038 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Reolysin Overview

Pelareorep (Reolysin) is under development for the treatment of metastatic breast cancer, HER2- breast cancer, relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma, acute myelocytic leukemia, metastatic colorectal cancer, metastatic triple negative breast cancer, metastatic pancreatic cancer, metastatic colorectal cancer, unresectable anal cancer and glioblastoma multiforme. The drug candidate is administered as injection or infusion through intravenous, intralesional, intratumoral, intraperitoneal and intrathecal route. Reolysin is a formulation of the human reovirus. It is reovirus type 3 without transgenes. The drug candidate was under development for the treatment of Ewing sarcoma, malignant fibrous histiocytoma, osteosarcoma, soft tissue sarcoma, fibrosarcoma, leiomyosarcoma, metastatic squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck, recurrent and refractory astrocytoma, oligodendroglioma, high grade gliomas, medulloblastoma, primitive neuroectodermal tumor (PNET), gastric cancer, metastatic hormone-refractory prostate cancer and muscle-invasive bladder cancer, epithelial ovarian cancer, fallopian tube cancer, peritoneal cancer, advanced or metastatic squamous or non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), metastatic adenocarcinoma of the pancreas, hepatocellular carcinoma and metastatic melanoma.

Oncolytics Biotech Overview

Oncolytics Biotech is a development stage biopharmaceutical company which focuses on the discovery and development of oncolytic viruses for the treatment of cancer. The company’s lead product candidate, pelareorep, is an unmodified reovirus that is an intraosseous (I-O) viral agent indicated for systemic administration for the treatment of hematological malignancies and solid tumors. It is advancing pelareorep as a combination with other products in various clinical phases for the treatment of metastatic breast cancer (BC), early-stage BC, pancreatic cancer, and relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma. Oncolytics Biotech is headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, Canada.

The operating loss of the company was CAD26.9 million in FY2022, compared to an operating loss of CAD26.2 million in FY2021. The net loss of the company was CAD24.8 million in FY2022, compared to a net loss of CAD26.3 million in FY2021.

For a complete picture of Reolysin’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.