What is the current valuation of Novartis’s Opnurasib

The revenue for Opnurasib is expected to reach an annual total of $71 mn by 2034 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Opnurasib Overview

opnurasib (JDQ-443) is under development for the treatment of advanced solid tumor, small cell lung cancer, STK11 mutated non-small cell lung cancer and colorectal cancer. It acts by targeting KRAS G12C mutation. It is administered through oral route. The drug candidate is a new molecular entity (NME).

Novartis Overview

Novartis is a healthcare company that focuses on the discovery, development, manufacture and marketing of prescription and generic pharmaceutical products and eye care products. It provides drugs for the treatment of cancer, cardiovascular diseases, dermatological conditions, neurological disorders, ophthalmic and respiratory diseases, hematologic diseases, solid tumors, immune disorders, and infections, among others. The company offers generic medicines and biosimilars through Sandoz. Novartis conducts research in various disease areas through The Novartis Institutes for BioMedical Research (NIBR). The company operates through a network of subsidiaries and offices across the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia-Pacific. Novartis is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.

The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$51,742 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), a decrease of 2.1% over FY2021. In FY2022, the company’s operating margin was 17.8%, compared to an operating margin of 22.1% in FY2021. In FY2022, the company recorded a net margin of 13.4%, compared to a net margin of 45.4% in FY2021.
The company reported revenues of US$12,092 million for the third quarter ended September 2023, a decrease of 46.9% over the previous quarter.

For a complete picture of Opnurasib’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.