The revenue for CAP-1002 is expected to reach an annual total of $41 mn by 2038 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
CAP-1002 Overview
CAP-1002 is under development for the treatment of pulmonary arterial hypertension, advanced heart failure, Duchenne muscular dystrophy, ischemic heart disease. CDCs are delivered by intravenous and intracoronary infusion. The drug candidate is allogeneic cardiosphere-derived stem cells (CDCs). The drug candidate is developed based on CDC technology. It was also under development for the treatment of dilated cardiomyopathy, myocardial infarction, cardiomyopathy and ischemic left ventricular dysfunction, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The drug candidate is a new molecular entity (NME).
Nippon Shinyaku Overview
Nippon Shinyaku develops, manufactures, and sells ethical pharmaceuticals and functional foods. The company offers products for pain, inflammation, and allergies; urological diseases; hematologic malignancies; gastrointestinal disorders; cardiovascular and metabolic diseases among others. Nippon Shinyaku also provides functional food ingredients including health food ingredients, preservatives, spices and condiments, and protein preparations. Its functional food products find application in meat processing, fish processing, dairy product, prepared food, confectionery and bakery, and beverage, among others. The company operates business through a network of offices and research laboratories located in Japan, China, the UK and the US. Nippon Shinyaku is headquartered in Minami-ku, Kyoto, Japan.
The company reported revenues of (Yen) JPY144,175 million for the fiscal year ended March 2023 (FY2023), an increase of 4.9% over FY2022. In FY2023, the company’s operating margin was 20.8%, compared to an operating margin of 23.9% in FY2022. In FY2023, the company recorded a net margin of 15.8%, compared to a net margin of 18.2% in FY2022.
For a complete picture of CAP-1002’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
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