What is the current valuation of Merck’s MRNA-4157

The revenue for MRNA-4157 is expected to reach an annual total of $393 mn by 2039 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

MRNA-4157 Overview

mRNA-4157 is under development for the treatment of solid tumors including, melanoma, metastatic melanoma, non-small cell lung cancer, squamous non-small cell lung cancer, small-cell lung cancer, head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, bladder urothelial carcinoma, head and neck squamous cell carcinoma including oral cavity cancer, laryngeal cancer, oropharyngeal cancer, hypopharyngeal cancer and colorectal cancer. It is administered through intramuscular route. The therapeutic candidate is developed by using mRNA vaccine technology, which enables the delivery of mRNA encoding for peptides containing personalized neoantigens to specific tumors and LNP technology. It was also under development for the treatment of stomach adenocarcinoma, esophageal adenocarcinoma and endometrial cancer.

Merck Overview

Merck is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery, development, manufacturing and marketing of prescription medicines, biologic therapies, vaccines, and animal health products. It offers prescription products for therapy areas related to cardiovascular, cancer, immune disorders, infectious, respiratory, and diabetes. The company provides animal health products such as vaccines, poultry products, livestock products and aquaculture products. Merck sells medicines to drug wholesalers, retailers, hospitals, government agencies and managed health care providers; and animal health products to veterinarians, distributors and animal producers. The company and its subsidiaries operate in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Merck is known as MSD outside the US and Canada and is headquartered in Kenilworth, New Jersey, the US.

The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$59,283 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), an increase of 21.7% over FY2021. In FY2022, the company’s operating margin was 30.3%, compared to an operating margin of 25.7% in FY2021. In FY2022, the company recorded a net margin of 24.5%, compared to a net margin of 26.8% in FY2021.
The company reported revenues of US$15,962 million for the third quarter ended September 2023, an increase of 6.2% over the previous quarter.

For a complete picture of MRNA-4157’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.