What is the current valuation of Medivir’s Fostroxacitabine Bralpamide Hydrochloride

The revenue for Fostroxacitabine Bralpamide Hydrochloride is expected to reach an annual total of $59 mn by 2036 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Fostroxacitabine Bralpamide Hydrochloride Overview

fostroxacitabine bralpamide (MIV-818) is under development for the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma. The drug candidate is administered through the oral route as a capsule. It is a prodrug of troxacitabine. It is liver-targeted nucleoside prodrug. It acts by targeting DNA polymerase.

Medivir Overview

Medivir is a pharmaceutical company that offers the drug discovery and development of treatments for cancer. The company’s product indications include cutaneous T-cell lymphoma, osteoarthritis, solid tumors, hepatocellular carcinoma and acute myeloid leukemia. Medivir also provides products in partnership with other pharmaceutical companies for the disease areas of hepatitis C and labial herpes. The company operates through a research unit in Huddinge, Sweden. Medvir is headquartered in Huddinge, Sweden.

The company reported revenues of (Swedish Krona) SEK4.4 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), a decrease of 82.7% over FY2021. The operating loss of the company was SEK87.4 million in FY2022, compared to an operating loss of SEK62.1 million in FY2021. The net loss of the company was SEK88.8 million in FY2022, compared to a net loss of SEK63.1 million in FY2021.
The company reported revenues of SEK2 million for the second quarter ended June 2023, compared to a revenue of SEK0.4 million the previous quarter.

For a complete picture of Fostroxacitabine Bralpamide Hydrochloride’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.