What is the current valuation of Eli Lilly and Co’s Retatrutide

The revenue for Retatrutide is expected to reach an annual total of $289 mn by 2038 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Retatrutide Overview

Retatrutide (LY-3437943) is under development for the treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus, obesity and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. The drug candidate is administered through subcutaneous and intravenous route. The drug candidate acts by targeting glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1), glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP), and glucagon receptors. It is a new molecular entity.

Eli Lilly and Co Overview

Eli Lilly and Co (Lilly) is a healthcare company that is engaged in the discovery, development, and marketing of human healthcare products. The company offers medicines for cardiovascular conditions, diabetes, endocrinology, cancer, neurological problems, autoimmune disorders, men’s health, and musculoskeletal problems. The company distributes its pharmaceutical health products through independent wholesale distributors. Lilly conducts research and development activities to discover and deliver innovative medicines. It also promotes products through sales representatives and marketing agreements with other pharmaceutical companies. The company also offers its products in North America, South America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia-Pacific. Lilly is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana, the US.

The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$28,541.4 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), an increase of 0.8% over FY2021. In FY2022, the company’s operating margin was 25%, compared to an operating margin of 21% in FY2021. In FY2022, the company recorded a net margin of 21.9%, compared to a net margin of 19.7% in FY2021.
The company reported revenues of US$6,960 million for the first quarter ended March 2023, a decrease of 4.7% over the previous quarter.

For a complete picture of Retatrutide’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.