The revenue for LY-3972406 is expected to reach an annual total of $16 mn by 2037 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
LY-3972406 Overview
LY-3972406 is under development for the treatment of moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis and autoimmune diseases. It is administered through oral route. The drug candidate acts by targeting Kv1.3.
Eli Lilly and Co Overview
Eli Lilly and Co (Lilly) is a healthcare company that is engaged in the discovery, development, and marketing of human healthcare products. The company offers medicines for cardiovascular conditions, diabetes, endocrinology, cancer, neurological problems, autoimmune disorders, men’s health, and musculoskeletal problems. The company distributes its pharmaceutical health products through independent wholesale distributors. Lilly conducts research and development activities to discover and deliver innovative medicines. It also promotes products through sales representatives and marketing agreements with other pharmaceutical companies. The company also offers its products in North America, South America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia-Pacific. Lilly is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana, the US.
For a complete picture of LY-3972406’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
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