What is the current valuation of Celltrion’s Aflibercept Biosimilar.

The revenue for Aflibercept Biosimilar. is expected to reach an annual total of $233 mn by 2039 globally based off GlobalData’s Revenue Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

Aflibercept Biosimilar. Overview

Aflibercept biosimilar (CT-P42) is under development for the treatment of diabetic macular edema. It is administered through intravitreal route. The drug candidate acts by targeting placenta growth factor (PGF), vascular endothelial growth factor A and B (VEGF A). 

Celltrion Overview

Celltrion is a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on the research, development, and manufacture of biosimilars and novel biopharmaceuticals. The company offers monoclonal antibodies for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, ulcerative colitis, adult Crohn’s disease, psoriatic arthritis, and psoriasis. Its pipeline portfolio spans monoclonal antibody biosimilars for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis; colorectal cancer; and respiratory disease; and antibody biologics and vaccines for infectious diseases such as hepatitis B, influenza, rabies, breast cancer, and seasonal influenza. Celltrion develops drugs by using its bioengineering and mammalian cell-culture technology. The company also carries out contract manufacturing of biosimilars. It has an operational presence in Korea, Russia, the UK and the US. Celltrion is headquartered in Incheon, South Korea.

The company reported revenues of (Won) KRW2,283,967.5 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), an increase of 20.6% over FY2021. In FY2022, the company’s operating margin was 27.9%, compared to an operating margin of 36.2% in FY2021. In FY2022, the company recorded a net margin of 23.5%, compared to a net margin of 30.6% in FY2021.
The company reported revenues of KRW523,978.4 million for the second quarter ended June 2023, a decrease of 12.3% over the previous quarter.

For a complete picture of Aflibercept Biosimilar.’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.