The revenue for BNT-321 is expected to reach an annual total of $27 mn by 2036 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
BNT-321 Overview
MVT-5873 is under development for the treatment of metastatic adenocarcinoma of the pancreas, cholangiocarcinoma, pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma and metastatic colorectal cancer.. It is administered intravenously. It is a recombinant human IgG antibody that acts by targeting carbohydrate antigen sialyl-Lewis(a), also known as CA19.9. The drug candidate is developed based on human antibody discovery platform.
It was also under development for the treatment of CA19-9 positive malignancies including gastrointestinal cancer (colon cancer), non-small cell lung cancers, small cell lung cancers.
BioNTech Overview
BioNTech is a biotechnology company that develops immunotherapies for cancer and infectious diseases. It is investigating mRNA therapeutics, engineered cell and gene therapies, antibodies and small molecule immunomodulators to treat advanced melanoma, solid tumors, non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), prostate, head and neck, ovarian, pancreatic and triple negative breast cancer. The company is also evaluating treatments for HIV, tuberculosis, malaria, hepatitis B, influenza, and COVID-19. BioNTech uses FixVac and iNeST technology platforms to discover and develop cancer immunotherapies targeting antigens and neoantigens. It works in partnership with Genentech Inc, Pfizer, Genmab AS and other biopharmaceutical companies to develop its pipeline products. BioNTech is headquartered in Mainz, Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany.
The company reported revenues of (Euro) EUR17,310.6 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), a decrease of 8.8% over FY2021. In FY2022, the company’s operating margin was 73%, compared to an operating margin of 80.5% in FY2021. In FY2022, the company recorded a net margin of 54.5%, compared to a net margin of 54.2% in FY2021.
The company reported revenues of EUR1,277 million for the first quarter ended March 2023, a decrease of 70.2% over the previous quarter.
For a complete picture of BNT-321’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
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