What is the current valuation of AbbVie’s ABBV-400

The revenue for ABBV-400 is expected to reach an annual total of $38 mn by 2039 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

ABBV-400 Overview

ABBV-400 is under development for the treatment of solid tumors including squamous and non squamous non-small cell lung cancer, gastric cancer, gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma, uterine cancer, melanoma, head and neck cancer squamous cell carcinoma, colorectal cancer, metastatic colorectal cancer, renal cell carcinoma, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), biliary tract cancers (BTC), esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) and hormone receptor+/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 negative (HER2-) breast cancer. It is administered by intravenous route. The therapeutic candidate is a next generation antibody drug conjugate and comprises of anti-c-MET antibody conjugated with topoisomerase inhibitor payload.

AbbVie Overview

AbbVie is a specialty biopharmaceutical company, which discovers, develops, manufactures, and commercializes drugs for the treatment of chronic and complex diseases. Its drugs are indicated for the treatment of metabolic and rheumatological diseases, neurological disorders, skin diseases, rheumatoid arthritis, pain related to endometriosis, pediatric Crohn’s disease, cancer, and other serious health conditions. AbbVie is also advancing its pipeline programs for the treatment of Crohn’s disease, Parkinson’s disease, viral diseases, wet AMD, various cancers, neurological disorders, aesthetics, and other autoimmune diseases. The company markets its products directly to wholesalers, distributors, healthcare facilities, government agencies, specialty pharmacies and independent retailers through its own distribution centers and public warehouses worldwide. AbbVie is headquartered in North Chicago, Illinois, the US.

The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$58,054 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), an increase of 3.3% over FY2021. In FY2022, the company’s operating margin was 31.2%, compared to an operating margin of 31.9% in FY2021. In FY2022, the company recorded a net margin of 20.4%, compared to a net margin of 20.5% in FY2021.
The company reported revenues of US$13,927 million for the third quarter ended September 2023, an increase of 0.4% over the previous quarter.

For a complete picture of ABBV-400’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.