Stroke brain-bleed deaths predicted to increase by 40% in the UK

In Europe, stroke-related brain-bleed deaths are expected to increase by 8.9% by 2050

Researchers from King’s College London (KCL) have predicted that the number of cases and deaths from intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) is set to increase across Europe and the UK by 2050.

Published in the Lancet Regional Health – Europe, the study highlights the need for country-specific action plans.

The stroke subtype, ICH, is a condition that occurs when haematoma is formed within the brain parenchyma with or without blood extension into the ventricles.

The condition constitutes 44% of stroke-related deaths and contributes to 28% of all stroke cases.

Researchers estimate a 59.4% increase in deaths related to ICH in people aged 70 to 95 and over in the UK by 2050.

However, in people under the age of 50, research estimates a decrease in ICH-related deaths by 40% in the UK and 65% in Europe.

Additionally, researchers also identified the top five countries with the biggest increase in deaths, being Ireland with 74.4% of deaths, Cyprus (74.2%), Luxembourg (70.7%), the Netherlands (45%) and Finland (40.7%).

Findings from the study identify the need for country-specific action plans due to the variations across EU nations.

The authors have suggested further research to monitor epidemiological trends, risk factor prevalence and disease mechanisms to refine projections and target interventions against ICH.

Yanzhong Wang, professor of statistics in population health, KCL, said: “The findings emphasise the importance of planning for rising healthcare demands and caregiving needs to tackle the anticipated surge in ICH cases and related deaths.”

The “sophisticated modelling framework… [anticipates] the future health burden of ICH,” said Hatem Wafa, research associate and trial statistician, KCL.

He added: “By considering multiple scenarios, the study offered a range of potential trajectories between 2019 and 2050.”

Earlier this month, the National Institute of Health and Care Excellence issued guidance endorsing the use of Brainomix’s artificial intelligence enabled software, Brainomix 360, to potentially be used within the NHS to benefit clinical decision-making in strokes.