What is the current valuation of Novo Nordisk’s (Insulin icodec + Semaglutide)

The revenue for (Insulin icodec + Semaglutide) is expected to reach an annual total of $276 mn by 2037 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

(Insulin icodec + Semaglutide) Overview

A fixed dose combination of GLP-1 analogue semaglutide and insulin icodec, long-acting basal insulin is under development for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. The drug candidate is administered as an subcutaneous formulation.The combination acts by targeting GLP-1R and insulin receptor.

Novo Nordisk Overview

Novo Nordisk, a subsidiary of Novo Holdings AS, is a healthcare company focused on discovering, developing, and manufacturing innovative biological medicines. It focuses on advancing drugs for the treatment of diabetes and other serious chronic conditions, including hemophilia, human growth hormone (HGH) disorders, rare blood and rare endocrine diseases, and obesity. The company’s portfolio includes pre-filled delivery systems for insulin; glucagon hypokit; cartridge; needles; vials; insulin; estradiol for hormone replacement; recombinant drugs for hemophilia; glucagon; and oral antidiabetic agents. The company markets its products through subsidiaries in North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, Africa, the Middle East and Australia. Novo Nordisk is headquartered in Bagsvaerd, Denmark.

The company reported revenues of (Danish Krone) DKK232,261 million for the fiscal year ended December 2023 (FY2023), an increase of 31.3% over FY2022. In FY2023, the company’s operating margin was 44.2%, compared to an operating margin of 42.3% in FY2022. In FY2023, the company recorded a net margin of 36%, compared to a net margin of 31.4% in FY2022.

For a complete picture of (Insulin icodec + Semaglutide)’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.