The revenue for Vamorolone is expected to reach an annual total of $192 mn by 2032 in the US based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Vamorolone Overview
Vamorolone (VBP-15) is under development for the treatment of mild or moderately active ulcerative colitis, Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD), Becker muscular dystrophy, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder, rheumatoid arthritis, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, ANCA-associated vasculitis, juvenile dermatomyositis, calpain 3 deficiency (LGMD2A), limb girdle muscular dystrophy type 2B (LGMD2B) and was under development for the treatment of sickle cell anemia, cystic fibrosis and systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis (SJIA). It is administered orally as suspension. Vamorolone is a dissociative delta-9, 11 glucocorticoid analogue, a steroidal drug. It targets NR3C1.
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Overview
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals (Catalyst) is a biopharmaceutical company that develops and commercializes prescription drugs targeting rare neurological and neuromuscular diseases. The company focuses on specific conditions such as lambert-eaton myasthenic syndrome (LEMS) and focal onset seizures. The company also has various existing agreements to commercialize its products. Its product portfolio includes Firdapse, a proprietary form of amifampridine phosphate for the treatment of LEMS in children and adults. The company operates in the US and through its subsidiary in Ireland. Catalyst is headquartered in Coral Gables, Florida, the US.
The company reported revenues of (US Dollars) US$214.2 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), an increase of 52.1% over FY2021. In FY2022, the company’s operating margin was 47.5%, compared to an operating margin of 37.2% in FY2021. In FY2022, the company recorded a net margin of 38.8%, compared to a net margin of 28% in FY2021.
The company reported revenues of US$85.4 million for the first quarter ended March 2023, an increase of 40.5% over the previous quarter.
For a complete picture of Vamorolone’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
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