What is the current valuation of Bavarian Nordic’s PXVX-0317

The revenue for PXVX-0317 is expected to reach an annual total of $47 mn by 2037 globally based off GlobalData’s Expiry Model. The drug’s revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drug’s phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.

PXVX-0317 Overview

CHIKV-VLP is under development for the prevention of chikungunya viral infection. The therapeutic candidate is administered through intramuscular route. The vaccine candidate is a virus like particle vaccine that consists of CHIKV VLP composed of E1, E2 and capsid proteins.

Bavarian Nordic Overview

Bavarian Nordic is a vaccine company that develops, manufactures and commercializes vaccines for the prevention of life-threating diseases. The company develops its products using poxvirus-based technology platforms including modified vaccinia Ankara –Bavarian Nordic (MVA-BN). The company’s marketed products include JYNNEOS for smallpox and monkeypox; Encepur for tick-borne encephalitis; MVABEA for ebola; and Rabipur/RabAvert for rabbies. Its pipeline products are intended for the treatment of smallpox, COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus, HER2- and brachyury-expressing cancers and Ebola infections. Bavarian Nordic has collaboration with the US government and various institutes, to develop its product candidates for the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. It has a presence in the US, Denmark, Switzerland and Germany. Bavarian Nordic is headquartered in Hellerup, Denmark.

The company reported revenues of (Danish Krone) DKK3,150.8 million for the fiscal year ended December 2022 (FY2022), an increase of 66% over FY2021. The operating loss of the company was DKK70.8 million in FY2022, compared to an operating loss of DKK313.6 million in FY2021. The net loss of the company was DKK347.4 million in FY2022, compared to a net loss of DKK464.8 million in FY2021.
The company reported revenues of DKK1,986.6 million for the second quarter ended June 2023, an increase of 58.7% over the previous quarter.

For a complete picture of PXVX-0317’s valuation, buy the drug’s risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.

GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.

To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.

The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.